Executive Summary
Critical Sociological Trends
Key trend of 2025 carrying into early 2026 is war fatigue and the absence of any visible prospect of an end. Independent polling shows that between 50% and 61% of Russians now support peace negotiations versus only 31% - 37% backing continued fighting. This creates sustained public irritation as the conflict consequences - inflation, restrictions, security fears - intensify. Yet the Kremlin doubles down on militarization, widening the gap between public hopes and state policy Anxiety is surging across Russian society. National anxiety index rose 7% in 2025, with dramatic spikes in St. Petersburg (tripled) and Krasnodar Krai (doubled). Top concerns reveal the regime pressure points: mobile internet shutdowns, financial fraud, inflation (cited by 59% as the most acute problem), and restricted access to basic services.
Social discontent is leading to open resistance. In 2025, protests broke out over recycling fees in Vladivostok, cancelled war compensation in Kursk, Lake Baikal logging in Irkutsk, and taxes in various regions. Healthcare issues affect 52% of Russians due to doctor shortages and limited access.
Digital sovereignty measures are backfiring. Internet shutdowns affected 72% of respondents by October 2025, with 74.4 daily outages recorded in November. Resistance is widespread: 36% of all Russians use VPNs (nearly 60% among 18-40 year-olds). The state messenger Max has achieved only a marginal acceptance - revealing everyday sabotage and systemic distrust.
Why it matters: Impact on Regime Stability
The Kremlin faces a legitimacy trap of its own making. With 61% demanding negotiations while the state pursues militarization, authorities cannot satisfy public demands without abandoning their strategic course. Economic relief through spending is constrained by sanctions and military priorities, forcing the regime toward escalation as its primary control mechanism - targeting not just opponents but even loyal populations through intimidation.
Multiple pressure points are converging simultaneously. Unlike previous moments of Russian discontent focused on single issues, 2026 presents overlapping crises: economic (inflation, taxes, falling incomes), social (healthcare collapse, labor rights), security (border region compensation battles), and digital (internet restrictions). Each represents a separate mobilization channel, and their combination reduces the regime capacity to suppress or co-opt resistance.
Protest legitimization is occurring through "safe" channels. Environmental activism (affecting 20% concerned about conditions) provides cover for challenging authorities on governance and development without direct politicization. This creates precedents for public assembly and collective action that can transfer to more sensitive domains. The regime traditional playbook of selective repression becomes less effective when multiple "permitted" fronts open simultaneously.
The digital control strategy is generating its own opposition. By conditioning Russians to outages and restrictions while pushing unpopular state platforms, the Kremlin transforms technical issues into political grievances. High VPN adoption rates and Max rejection demonstrate that significant portions of society - particularly younger, more urban demographics - are actively circumventing state control in daily life, normalizing resistance practices.
Conclusions
The Russian regime enters 2026 facing systemic fragility across multiple dimensions. War fatigue, economic pressure, social service collapse, and failed digital controls are not isolated problems but interconnected vulnerabilities that amplify each other. The critical factor is timing: as these pressures converge, the Kremlin standard tools - selective repression, economic relief, controlled mobilization - lose effectiveness.
Key flashpoints for 2026 cluster around: (1) continued inflation and tax increases eroding living standards, (2) healthcare and public sector crises affecting the majority populations daily, (3) war-related compensation battles in border regions, (4) escalating internet restrictions triggering broader digital resistance, and (5) environmental protests serving as vehicles for governance challenges.
The regime chosen response - doubling down on militarization and control - exacerbates rather than resolves underlying tensions. This creates a dynamic where the authorities must constantly escalate to maintain deterrence, but each escalation further alienates populations and validates resistance strategies. The 61% demanding negotiations represent not just war fatigue but fundamental exhaustion with the current trajectory - a sentiment the Kremlin cannot indefinitely suppress through intimidation alone.