Z-Anger at the Kremlin: Pro-War Community Turns on the Regime

Executive Summary

Pro-war Z-bloggers revolt against Defense Ministry lies. Russia's pro-war milieu is openly criticizing the military leadership for fabricating battlefield progress. DeepState data shows Russian advances collapsed from 445 sq km in December to 245 sq km in January—nearly half. CSIS confirms Russia controls only 0.6% of Ukraine's territory gained in 2024 (3,604 sq km) at cost of 35,000+ casualties monthly. Yet official propaganda claims "steady offensive progress." Z-channels erupt: "Settlements presented as controlled are not captured," Defense Ministry-linked Rybar condemns "anti-crises"—commanders risking soldiers for propaganda videos showing fake control. Alex Parker Returns: "In Dnipropetrovsk our defense completely collapsed... second catastrophe after Kupiansk." Even major Z-channel complains about "stepping on the same rake for the third month."

Starlink shutdown triggers panic and infrastructure exposure. February 4: Ukraine/SpaceX enable "whitelist" mode, disabling unverified terminals Russians acquired through gray-market schemes (purchased abroad, activated, resold to units via Z-volunteers). Z-channel Belarusian Silovik: "Almost 90% of units I support have no internet right now." Impact immediate: Politico sources report Russian advance pace "noticeably slowed" within 48 hours; Ukraine's General Staff source says "in some sectors, assaults stopped altogether"—Russian troops like "blind kittens." Z-space consensus: no viable alternatives exist. Voennyi Osvedomitel mocks: "Fighting NATO while relying on NATO satellite internet—and not developing alternatives—is a so-so idea." Drone developer Chadaev blames "Collective Leadership" being "repulsed by horizontal ties." Z-authors recall generals imprisoned for theft in military communications projects.

Assassination attempt on GRU general exposes security failures and internal rifts. February 6: Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev (GRU First Deputy Chief, reports to Admiral Kostyukov who leads Russia's negotiation delegation) targeted in Moscow—fourth rear-area assassination attempt on general since invasion began. Lavrov blames "Zelensky regime," but Ukraine didn't claim responsibility and Washington Post reports Western intelligence doubts Kyiv involvement. Pro-Kremlin insider channel "Provisional Government 2.0" suggests internal security-services infighting: Alekseyev became key coordinator of PMC Redut, Storm Z, Volunteer Corps after Wagner's destruction—"irritated parts of military/security establishment." His "Española" unit dismantled fall 2025; its leader died under unclear circumstances. Channel notes: "Both Shoigu and FSB services have resources for such actions"—any operation easily blamed on "Ukrainian hitmen." Z-volunteer Rudenko: "Slap in the face to our special services... reputational losses." Two Majors: "Officers safer in Bakhmut than Moscow... no security detail, live in ordinary apartments."

Why it matters

Regime's core support base fracturing over competence crisis. Z-community represents regime's ideological shock troops—volunteers, propagandists, combat bloggers who sustain narrative legitimacy and mobilize grassroots war support. Their radicalization signals cracks in social contract with ultranationalist constituency. Criticisms target systemic failures: (1) Defense Ministry fabricates battlefield reports—"towns taken on credit"; (2) Military leadership lacks alternatives to Western tech (Starlink dependency); (3) Security services can't protect senior commanders in Moscow. This isn't anti-war opposition—it's hardliners demanding regime deliver on promises. Anger focuses on incompetence, corruption, bureaucratic paralysis. Z-authors openly mock "Collective Leadership" and recall imprisoned generals who stole from comms projects while troops rely on Elon Musk. Internal security bloc fragmentation creates unpredictable dynamics. Alekseyev assassination attempt—whether Ukrainian operation or internal hit—exposes dangerous fissures. Post-Wagner landscape saw GRU (Alekseyev) absorb PMC functions, creating bureaucratic rivals. "Provisional Government 2.0" explicitly names Shoigu and FSB as having "resources for such actions." Pattern emerging: unclear deaths (Española leader), unit dismantlements, now assassination attempt on coordinator. Z-community reading this as power struggle, not Ukrainian success—which undermines regime's external-threat narrative while revealing elite cannot ensure basic security for own personnel. When propagandists sarcastically note generals safer at frontline than Moscow, regime loses monopoly on competence narrative.

Conclusions

Key systemic cracks:

(1) Propaganda-reality gap unsustainable: When regime's own propagandists publicly call out Defense Ministry lies, information control fails. Z-community has battlefield access national audiences lack—their testimony undermines official narrative from within. "Anti-crises" phenomenon (fake control videos) now openly mocked by major channels;

(2) Technological dependency exposes strategic weakness: Starlink reliance reveals catastrophic failure to develop indigenous alternatives despite 3+ years of "fighting NATO." Immediate operational impact (assaults stopping, advances slowing) demonstrates battlefield dependence on adversary's technology. Z-space consensus that no viable substitutes exist;

(3) Security bloc infighting destabilizes regime core: Fourth rear-area general assassination attempt + insider speculation about FSB/Shoigu involvement indicates elite fragmentation. Post-Wagner restructuring created new rivalries GRU vs. others. Cannot protect senior military leadership in capital;

(4) Ultranationalist constituency demands results, not narratives: Unlike general population (war-fatigued, economically squeezed), Z-community wants escalation and victory. Their anger stems from regime failing to deliver military success—a fundamentally different political dynamic than peace protests. Creates pressure for either genuine battlefield gains (increasingly costly/unlikely) or internal scapegoating (purges, which fuel further instability).

Outlook: Z-community radicalization creates no-win scenario for Kremlin. Satisfying ultranationalists requires military escalation regime cannot afford (economically or operationally). Ignoring them risks losing core ideological base that sustains war mobilization. Starlink shutdown demonstrates technological vulnerabilities exploitable through non-kinetic means. Internal security tensions suggest elite cohesion fraying under wartime stress. Confluence of battlefield stagnation, infrastructure failures, and intra-elite conflict indicates regime's support coalition fragmenting from within—even as it maintains surface control.